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UltimateBrier

Computes Brier Scores

Description

Interface to compute probabilistic scores (Brier Score, Brier Skill Score) from data obtained from s2dverification.

Usage

UltimateBrier(
  ano_exp,
  ano_obs,
  posdatasets = 1,
  posmemb = 2,
  posdates = 3,
  quantile = TRUE,
  thr = c(5/100, 95/100),
  type = "BS",
  decomposition = TRUE
)

Arguments

ano_exp

Array of forecast anomalies, as provided by Ano(). Dimensions c(n. of experimental datasets, n. of members, n. of start dates, n. of forecast time steps, n. of latitudes, n. of longitudes). Dimensions in other orders are also supported. See parameters posdatasets, posmemb and posdates.
ano_obs

Array of observational reference anomalies, as provided by Ano(). Dimensions c(n. of observational reference datasets, n. of members, n. of start dates, n. of forecast time steps, n. of latitudes, n. of longitudes). Dimensions in other orders are also supported. See parameters posdatasets, posmemb and posdates.
posdatasets

Expected position of dimension corresponding to the different evaluated datasets in input data (ano_exp and ano_obs). By default 1.
posmemb

Expected position of dimension corresponding to members in input data (ano_exp and ano_obs). By default 2.
posdates

Expected position of dimension corresponding to starting dates in input data (ano_exp and ano_obs). By default 3.
quantile

Flag to stipulate whether a quantile (TRUE) or a threshold (FALSE) is used to estimate the forecast and observed probabilities. Takes TRUE by default.
thr

Values to be used as quantiles if 'quantile' is TRUE or as thresholds if 'quantile' is FALSE. Takes by default c(0.05, 0.95) if 'quantile' is TRUE.
type

Type of score desired. Can take the following values:

  • 'BS': Simple Brier Score.

  • 'FairEnsembleBS': Corrected Brier Score computed across ensemble members.

  • 'FairStartDatesBS': Corrected Brier Score computed across starting dates.

  • 'BSS': Simple Brier Skill Score.

  • 'FairEnsembleBSS': Corrected Brier Skill Score computed across ensemble members.

  • 'FairStartDatesBSS': Corrected Brier Skill Score computed across starting dates.

decomposition

Flag to determine whether the decomposition of the Brier Score into its components should be provided (TRUE) or not (FALSE). Takes TRUE by default. The decomposition will be computed only if 'type' is 'BS' or 'FairStartDatesBS'.

Value

If 'type' is 'FairEnsembleBS', 'BSS', 'FairEnsemblesBSS' or 'FairStartDatesBSS' or 'decomposition' is FALSE and 'type' is 'BS' or 'FairStartDatesBS', the Brier Score or Brier Skill Score will be returned respectively. If 'decomposition' is TRUE and 'type' is 'BS' or 'FairStartDatesBS' the returned value is a named list with the following entries:

  • 'BS': Brier Score.

  • 'REL': Reliability component.

  • 'UNC': Uncertainty component.

  • 'RES': Resolution component.

The dimensions of each of these arrays will be c(n. of experimental datasets, n. of observational reference datasets, n. of bins, the rest of input dimensions except for the ones pointed by 'posmemb' and 'posdates').

Author(s)

History:
0.1 - 2015-05 (V. Guemas virginie.guemas@bsc.es,
C. Prodhomme chloe.prodhomme@bsc.es,
O. Bellprat omar.bellprat@bsc.es
V. Torralba veronica.torralba@bsc.es
N. Manubens, nicolau.manubens@bsc.es) - First version

Examples

# See ?Load for an explanation on the first part of this example.
 ## Not run: 
data_path <- system.file('sample_data', package = 's2dverification')
expA <- list(name = 'experiment', path = file.path(data_path, 
            'model/$EXP_NAME$/$STORE_FREQ$_mean/$VAR_NAME$_3hourly',
            '$VAR_NAME$_$START_DATE$.nc'))
obsX <- list(name = 'observation', path = file.path(data_path,
            '$OBS_NAME$/$STORE_FREQ$_mean/$VAR_NAME$',
            '$VAR_NAME$_$YEAR$$MONTH$.nc'))

# Now we are ready to use Load().
startDates <- c('19851101', '19901101', '19951101', '20001101', '20051101')
sampleData <- Load('tos', list(expA), list(obsX), startDates, 
                  leadtimemin = 1, leadtimemax = 4, output = 'lonlat',
                  latmin = 27, latmax = 48, lonmin = -12, lonmax = 40)
 
## End(Not run)
 
sampleData$mod <- Season(sampleData$mod, 4, 11, 12, 2)
sampleData$obs <- Season(sampleData$obs, 4, 11, 12, 2)
clim <- Clim(sampleData$mod, sampleData$obs)
ano_exp <- Ano(sampleData$mod, clim$clim_exp)
ano_obs <- Ano(sampleData$obs, clim$clim_obs)
bs <- UltimateBrier(ano_exp, ano_obs)
bss <- UltimateBrier(ano_exp, ano_obs, type = 'BSS')
s2dverification

Set of Common Tools for Forecast Verification

v2.10.0
Apache License 2.0
Authors
BSC-CNS [aut, cph], Virginie Guemas [aut], Nicolau Manubens [aut], An-Chi Ho [ctb, cre], Nuria Perez-Zanon [ctb], Javier Garcia-Serrano [aut], Neven Fuckar [aut], Louis-Philippe Caron [aut], Omar Bellprat [aut], Luis Rodrigues [aut], Veronica Torralba [aut], Alasdair Hunter [aut], Chloe Prodhomme [aut], Martin Menegoz [aut], Domingo Manubens [ctb], Constantin Ardilouze [ctb], Lauriane Batte [ctb], Fabian Lienert [ctb], Julia Giner [ctb], Jean-Philippe Baudouin [ctb], Nube Gonzalez [ctb], Ludovic Auger [ctb], Nicola Cortesi [ctb], Eleftheria Exarchou [ctb], Ruben Cruz [ctb], Isabel Andreu-Burillo [ctb], Ramiro Saurral [ctb]
Initial release

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